The Liberal government is bracing for a close call as they prepare for a final confidence vote on the federal budget, with a slim majority expected. This vote could determine whether the government avoids an election, as the Liberals work behind the scenes to secure opposition votes. A senior Liberal source revealed that Prime Minister Mark Carney currently lacks the necessary votes to win the confidence vote, but remains confident that some opposition members will ultimately support the budget. The NDP, in particular, is a key focus, with sources indicating that up to five of its seven MPs are likely to vote against the budget, while two, including leadership candidate Heather McPherson, are expected to abstain. However, the NDP's stance could change, as the party's MPs vote last, allowing them to make a final decision based on other opposition members' choices. The budget's passage is crucial, as a defeat would trigger an election, just seven months after the Liberals secured a strong minority government. The situation is further complicated by the recent floor crossing of Nova Scotia Conservative MP Chris d'Entremont, reducing the Liberals' majority by two votes. The government's survival hinges on the votes of just three NDP MPs, who could abstain or not vote, and the support of Green Party MP Elizabeth May, who is in discussions with the government. The budget's success is also influenced by the stance of the Conservative and Bloc Québécois parties, with leaders Pierre Poilievre and Yves-François Blanchet committing to voting against it. The outcome remains uncertain, as individual MPs' decisions may differ from party lines, and the popularity of the government and its leaders plays a significant role in shaping public opinion and the final vote.
